This weekend sees the return of the biggest sporting event of the year. No silly, not the Superbowl, the Wales-England rugby match. The teams have now been announced, so it is time for a little punditry.

England over-achieved magnificently at the World Cup, but their team is in serious re-building mold. Not only have they lost several key players to retirement and old age, they also have a bunch of injuries. They will, I think, be very pleased to come through this one with a win, no matter what the English media might say. Much is being made of the potential frailties of Iain Balshaw at full back, but I’m not sure that Tait would be any better. If I were England I’d be much more worried about the lose forwards where they have one relative novice, one complete newcomer, and Lewis Moody, whose commitment and aggression can’t be faulted but who can also be relied upon to give away a few kickable penalties and spend ten minutes in the sin bin.

Wales, in contrast, had a dreadful World Cup but have only one key injury (Dwayne Peel) and one old age issue (Stephen Jones, who is capably being replaced by the impressive James Hook). Warren Gatland has gambled on picking mainly from the Ospreys, and for the first game together he may have a point. Early matches in most international tournaments are littered with handling errors because the backs are not used to playing together. The Ospreys back line also brings with it a competent rush defense that hopefully won’t leak easy points through lack of communication.

However, I worry about Mike Phillips. He’s not had a lot of rugby at Ospreys because Justin Marshall has a lock on the starting position. You can’t fault Phillips’ self-confidence, but to be so sure of your own ability that you’ll leave a safe starting position at a good club to try to unseat the best player at your position in the world does lead people to question your judgment. Gareth Cooper, in contrast, has a regular starting spot in a team that is currently top of the English Premiership. I think I’d also prefer to see Tom Shanklin line up against Mike Tindall. Thankfully both Cooper and Shanklin are on the bench if problems arise during the game.

Who will win? Well, the last four games have all gone to the home side. England clearly have a big advantage from being at Twickenham. They will also, presumably, start off cautiously and play a typically English ball-control game. (For US readers, England are the rugby equivalent of the Baltimore Ravens – they are happy with a 3-0 win). If Wales are to win, they have to compete in the set pieces. England’s scrum is probably superior, but not so much so that it will push Wales off the ball. Where I think England will look to dominate is in the lineout. From what I have seen of the Ospreys this year, their lineout is not functioning as well as I’d like, so even though Gatland has picked a tight-knit group he still might find them failing to deliver. If England can keep the ball away from the Wales backs, and keep it in the Welsh half, then Wilkinson will win the game for them. If they can’t do those things, they may be run ragged.