Well, that was not the worst thing that could have happened.
The worst possible plausible result would have been a Tory government reliant on the Ulster Unionists for support. It doesn’t look like that will happen.
The next worst plausible result would have been an outright Tory win. That certainly won’t happen.
Next worst would probably be a discredited Labour hanging on thanks to the support of the Liberals and a rag tag group of minor parties. Such an arrangement would be horribly unstable and would terrify the City. When it collapsed the Tories would sweep to power.
The pressure is now on Friendly Dave. He can listen to his right wing, try to soldier on alone and hope for an early election that he’ll run on a much more right wing platform, where he’ll get slaughtered by a Lib/Lab alliance. Or he can do a deal with Clegg in which he gets to be PM on condition that he behaves himself and lives up to the Friendly Dave image.
What should Clegg demand?
Probably not PR, because that would drive the Tories away. Instead he should use the threat of a Lib/Lab, pro-PR alliance as a stick to keep Cameron honest.
He should insist on no deal with the Ulster Unionists. There should be no place in UK politics for extreme right-wing “Christian” thugs.
He can also insist on keeping the Human Rights Act, re-examining DeBill, and a much more compassionate approach to immigration and the economy that the Tory right would like.
(DeBill I expect he’ll lose on because, like Mandy, Cameron will be terrified of offending Murdoch, but there can at least be some re-examination.)
Whether this will do any good for Clegg in the long run is another matter. In the short term he’ll get a small amount of say in running the country, but at the next election he’ll lose seats to Labour and not gain from the Tories unless they really screw up. Probably the best he can hope for is that Cameron does something really bad fairly early on before Labour have their confidence back.
As for Labour, what they need is time to find a new leader and to re- energize themselves. Trying to hang on to power now will only result in even bigger loses at the next, very early, election.
All very interesting, and certainly much less depressing than the sharp end of election cycles usually are, perhaps because none of the major parties deviates all that far from a more-or-less bearable vaguely-left-tinged centrism. Also perhaps because none of them really have that much wiggle room in policy terms (all that fuss and bother in the TV debates over £6 bn, a sum that makes a molehill out of the deficit mountain).
I admire your faith that Clegg’s priorities will (or could) be issues of human rights and personal freedoms. But I can’t believe he won’t insist on PR. All the electoral maths suggests that the Lib Dems’ only hope of becoming a significant force again depends on some form of PR. They find themselves in a “moment” (as the Latin football managers say) when they have a huge influence on the next Parliament. Put those two facts together and it’s hard to see them not insisting on PR as a precondition for *any* other compromise.
The argument would go like this:
Dave: We’ve got to tackle the economy first. Let’s make the stable coalition and then sort out constitutional matters neve– sorry, I mean later.
Clegg: Nobody won. Nobody has the legitimacy to deal with anything. Therefore constitutional reform has to be the first precondition.
Dave: Oh come on Cleggy. You want PR, you’re always going to get coalition government. You have to demonstrate that it can work. By agreeing with m– sorry, by compromising.
Clegg: There’s no political justification for the compromise unless it’s based on a balance of powers which reflects the will of the electorate. So PR first, then we know who has the authority to compromise with whom.
Dave: Wise up, you day-school pipsqueak. Join me or you’ll have to go in with Gordon and I’ll make sure the Murdoch press slaughters the “losers’ coalition” on a daily basis.
Clegg: You just failed to beat one of the most unpopular PMs in history, and couldn’t throw out a party after they’d had *three* successive terms. You’ll never be PM unless I back you. Give me PR and you get to be PM.
It’ll be fascinating to see which way Dave jumps. He simply can’t agree to PR, the Tory party won’t have it. Unless he can find some fudge, or some way of persuading Clegg to put off a PR referendum for a couple of years, he’s going to have to accept some sort of loser’s role — either a minority government that will bear most of the blame for the coming fiscal horribleness, or the fun of watching Gordo, Cable, the Millibands and Simon Hughes introduce a PR referendum into the first parliament, and otherwise run the country.
Ideally Clegg would leave them all alone and see how things stand after the next election (November or so, I’d bet?) But I don’t think he can risk it. He’s going to push for PR while he has the chance.
Thank you for the excellent post. I fear, however, your warning regarding NI politicians holding the balance of power, a factor that delayed sorting out the troubles until Tony Blair got his working majority, may go unheaded. Peter Robinson, though defeated in his own constituency, is warming to the idea of having power in Westminster.
It all Awaits …. ” Events, Dear Boy Events ” as spoken by .. Maurice Harold Macmillan, 1st Earl of Stockton, OM, PC .. Once Upon a time at a time – that we would do well to remember when we think that OUR time in British Politics is, somehow, unique …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Macmillan
I as a child do, vaguely, remember SuperMac the last of the Old Tyme, Tory Shire, Hang em and Flog Em but show a Good Example to the Chaps equivalents to the Modern American Republicans .. who did, pre-Obama, it seems to me, oddly think of themselves as being apart from the nastier Republicans of the Post War and the Third World and REALLY much like the Republicans of a fantasy version – nastier non Christian bits left in only to show the True Way – Ancient Rome or of Republic Nova Star Wars -ia. God alone knows what they think of themselves as being now as they appear to drift ever more rightward.
I can just imagine Republican Americans asking .. Just WHY those Bamby Pamby Democrats can’t equip OUR Guys with Light sabers .. and by the way why can’t Tony Blair give us more of those Super Soldier S.A.S. troops ? Are the Brits UP to Something ? Want MORE Super-soldiers now or WE will stamp Feet!
Ah Well … they do Mean Well.
Fantasy does rather mix with reality in the minds of politicians of whatever stamp, and whatever Nationality and, since the Media does rather reflect the Political – and since the same scene in The Political Image does reflect the Media then , what the Hell.. they all rejoice in Knowing Each Other, each as Members of the Intelligent and Knowingly Influential Classes … People who are Not as the lesser Breed, who are .. Us – whose chief purpose in life is to be Influenced.
On ‘ NI politicians ‘ no, can’t see that ..too obvious and too Religious and thus Too Un-English and oh, Boy but the Neo Tories are English.
I’m afraid that Lib Dem as the fulcrum for Neo- Republicanism in the Mode a la English is the Way of the Future … Young Jedi.
The Events await the Major party who can most effectively persuade the Lib Dem’s that their Way is the Way of The Force … the Con is ON.
The way I wound up explaining the current situation to my SO, who hasn’t been nearly engrossed by the election as I have, was, “The political mating dance has begun.” (However, this led to some unfortunate mental images.)
“The political mating dance has begun.†Indeed it has and .. You have recited this following to your SO Perea ? .. just after you had you had demanded his collaboration in Duet and caroled .. ” His inamorata adjusted her garter. And lifted her voice in duet. ” …
“Will you walk a little faster?” said a whiting to a snail,
“There’s a porpoise close behind us, and he’s treading on my tail.
See how eagerly the lobsters and the turtles all advance!
They are waiting on the shingle — will you come and join the dance?
Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, will you join the dance?
Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, won’t you join the dance?
“You can really have no notion how delightful it will be
When they take us up and throw us, with the lobsters, out to sea!”
But the snail replied “Too far, too far!” and gave a look askance —
Said he thanked the whiting kindly, but he would not join the dance.
Would not, could not, would not, could not, would not join the dance.
Would not, could not, would not, could not, could not join the dance.
“What matters it how far we go?” his scaly friend replied.
“There is another shore, you know, upon the other side.
The further off from England the nearer is to France —
Then turn not pale, beloved snail, but come and join the dance.
Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, will you join the dance?
Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, won’t you joint the dance?
In my ‘umble opinion It should be done as a Tango ..
‘ Will you, won’t you, will you, won’t you, won’t you join the dance? ‘
Just a note: the Ulster Unionist Party, which ran under the “Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force” name this year, did not win any seats in Parliament in this election.
The unionist party in Northern Ireland that did win seats (8 of them) is the Democratic Unionist Party, which I think is the one that you meant to characterize as the “extreme right-wing ‘Christian’ thugs.”
And what would be so wrong about an outright Tory win?
It all depends who you are, doesn’t it? But I did explain, here.