World Cup For Dummies

Football (or “soccer” for my American and Australian friends) is a pretty simple game. Twenty-two guys kick a ball around for an hour and a half, they fall over a lot, and the game often ends without anyone scoring. That much anyone can glean from watching it for a while. Of course there are tactics. Football people will talk for hours about formations and methods of attack and defense, but these are largely invisible to the TV watcher because so much of the action happens off the ball. I don’t pretend to understand it all myself. But what about the tournament itself. Are there strategies for that? Well yes, I think they are, and I think they are quite simple.

In the group stage you need to have a team that is good at scoring goals in the face of a determined defense. If you don’t, you are liable to find your team held to a 0-0 draw by a team of no-hopers from a country you hadn’t heard of before they qualified for the tournament. These teams can’t score against a good side except by luck, but there is a fair amount of luck in the game so you have to be able to score a couple of goals.

The knock-out stage is quite different. Here your first priority is to be able to prevent the good attacking sides that have made it through this far from scoring. At this stage a loss is fatal, and most coaches would rather risk going out on penalties than risk attacking too much during the game and conceding goals.

A corollary of this is that the longer the Italians stay in the tournament, the more chance they have of winning.

The Soccer Thing

So, the FIFA World Cup is about to kick off. I don’t really have a dog in this fight. Wales, as usual, didn’t come anywhere near qualifying. Kevin, of course, will be supporting USA, which makes their first game a bit awkward. Thankfully I shall be on the train on the way back from Alt.Fiction when it takes place. Like my Welsh, Scottish and Irish friends, I’ll be hoping that the English lads don’t embarrass themselves. On the other hand, we are mostly hoping that they don’t win, because the English fans will be insufferable if they do. So I will mainly be hoping for some entertaining games. In particular I’m looking forward to watching Lionel Messi, Spain, and of course Brazil. I’m also hoping for some surprises. Also I will be getting into the South African mood by reading Moxyland [buy isbn=”9780857660046″].

Meanwhile, Tesco has been having a big sale on gym equipment, so I have bought a stepper. That way, if the TV is busy showing sport and unavailable to run the Wii, I can still get some exercise.

And finally, for a scarily accurate prediction as to how the tournament is likely to go for England, here’s Mitch Benn.

England: World Champions

I’m not entirely sure that I believe this, but it does appear to be true.

Possibly no one else believed it either, which would explain why South Africa were utterly humiliated and Australia well beaten by an England side that no one gave much of a chance going in to the tournament. They were 12/1 going into the event, with only Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Ireland and Afghanistan offering better odds. They were beaten by West Indies in their first game, and would have gone out of the tournament had rain not saved them against Ireland. From then all, the game looked very easy indeed. No, I can’t explain it. Like I said, I still don’t quite believe it.

Busy Weekend

Tomorrow I am off to Oxford for a party. I’ll be back home on Saturday. I could spend a lot of the weekend doing stuff. There’s the Bath Coffee Festival and the Love Food Festival in Bristol to think about. Probably, however, I will go home and collapse on Saturday. And on Sunday I’ll start getting the cottage organized and cheer on England in the Twenty20 World Cup Final.

Yes, you did read that correctly. The England cricket team are in the final of an international event. They will either play Australia or the current cup holders, Pakistan, who play their semi-final tomorrow. The fast Barbados pitch will favor the Australian bowlers, so odds on an apocalypse on Monday are not as good as you might think.

More Bits and Pieces

Here are a few more things that may be of interest:

– First and foremost, the Hugo Voter Packet has been released. For a mere £25 (currently rather better value that the US$50 price, though it may not be after the election) you can get a massive collection of ebook goodness, including all six nominees for Best Novel. Bargain.

– Talking of Worldcon news, Reno is going to hold a film festival. That’s excellent news as it shows they are working hard on attracting a new and diverse membership.

– On to some archaeology, and it appears that the Maya were pretty clever at urban plumbing.

– Back in Melbourne, scientists claim to have proved that Phar Lap died of arsenic poisoning. Of course this doesn’t prove murder, so they have not yet declared war on the USA…

– And finally, another plug for James Maliszewski’s excellent Grognardia blog. Although it is ostensibly about role-playing, it has many posts about pulp fiction. Here’s James talking about Lovecraft and Conan. His latest post is about the history of role-playing and its connections to the SCA and science fiction fandom. My knowledge is a bit fuzzy, but if one of you would like to point Lee Gold, Diana Paxson etc. at him I’m sure he’d be very grateful.

IPL Catchup

Having been distracted by Life, I’ve been a bit too busy to blog about the IPL much. Last time I did so, I was feeling pretty confident about the Royals’ chances. Unfortunately the team went into a short slump soon after. They fought back with superb wins over the Chargers and Kings XI, and then got crushed by both Mumbai and Bangalore. Admittedly they are the two best teams of the year, and from an England point of view it was good to see Kevin Pietersen back on form, but it was disappointing to see the Royals lose so badly.

With only 5 games left to play the league is still very much in the balance. Only Mumbai are certain of a place in the playoffs. Only Punjab cannot get there. Fourth place will almost certainly be decided on net run rate, and as ours is rather poor I don’t think we’ll make it.

Then again, this is Twenty20, you never know…

Royals on a Charge

The mess that my life fell into over the past couple of weeks has meant that I have not been paying too much attention to the IPL. Given how the Royals started the season, that’s probably just as well. Their first game was a narrow 4-run loss to Mumbai, despite an awesome 37-ball century from Yusuf Pathan. From there things went downhill fast as my boys were thrashed by Delhi and by Bangalore. More recently, however, things have turned around, with good wins against Kolkata and Punjab. Today we completed an easy 8-wicket win over the reigning champion Deccan Chargers, with Yusuf again starring. Mumbai and Bangalore appear to be the form teams of the tournament, and the Bangalore squad has just been strengthened by the arrival of Kevin Pietersen. However, if the Royals can keep up their current form they have every chance of making it to the playoffs, at which point it is anyone’s game again.

A Little Linkage

Hmm, what have we got for you today?

– “Bring me the head of Amenhotep III!” Or maybe not. It is 2.5 meters tall and made of solid granite. I’m not sure there is room on the patio. Those Egyptians sure did do BIG.

– “The name’s Dare, Dan Dare.” PS Publishing announces a tribute to the great Frank Hampton, creator of many a British schoolboy’s (and schoolgirl’s) dreams. That looks like a must-buy book.

Time on women’s ski jumping, including IOC member, Dick Pound, trying his best to sound like a Chicago Crime Boss. (hat tip: Zoe Brain)

Two Narrow Wins

Italy and Scotland fought out a close match in Rome. It wasn’t great rugby, but the two sides were fairly evenly matched. Italy came out ahead by 16-12, primarily because they were able to score a try while Scotland, despite threatening a lot, didn’t manage to do so.

England were a lot better against Ireland than they were in Italy, but still failed to sparkle, or win. The match statistics tell a fascinating story. England dominated possession, especially in the second half when they had twice as much ball as the Irish. Ireland made 99 tackles during the game, and missed only one. England only made 30 tackles, but missed seven. The Irish wings scored three tries – two for Tommy Bowe and one for Keith Earls. England scored only one try, and that by a prop forward from close range. So yes, Ireland sat back and defended for most of the the game, but they did so very well, and when they did get a chance they were ruthless. And that’s why they ended up winners by 20-16.

Another One Thrown Away

France came to Cardiff this evening with a game plan. For the first forty minutes they looked like a cultured Premiership soccer club playing the away leg of a Champion’s League tie. “We know,” they said, “that you are under pressure to win. Our defense is solid, come at us.” So Wales did, and the defense was solid. The longer it held, the more likely it was that Wales would become desperate and try something ambitious, and make a mistake. Mistakes could then be punished, and points scored. Simples, as Aleksandr the meercat would say.

So it was that France went in at half time with a comfortable 20-0 lead. That came from two interception tries, and two penalties given away well inside the Welsh half. In other words, Wales had given France all of those points. France had “won” them simply by being patient and resolute in defense, and mercilessly efficient when pouncing on errors.

The second half was very different. During the break Warren Gatland had clearly reminded the Welsh side that you have to earn the right to go wide. It is just like American football – you can’t throw the ball if you have no running game, because the defense can pack their deep coverage. In the second half Wales ramped up the running game, taking the ball forward close to the ruck and sucking French defenders in. They camped in the French half. France started to make mistakes. Penalties were given, points came.

And then, the moment of opportunity. With the French defense pulled out of shape again, Wales flung the ball wide left. Shane Williams used all of his former scrum half skills to put Halfpenny in the clear on the wing. Stephen Jones slotted the difficult conversion. The lead was down to 7 points, and France had lost their scrum half and goal kicker, Morgan Parra, to the sin bin. If Wales could just capitalize on the man advantage the game was there for the taking.

Instead they blew it. Ten minutes passed, and the only points scored were a penalty to France. The Welsh tactics were better in the second half, but their game was just as error-strewn. Lee Byrne missed two simple kicks to touch that would have given Wales superb attacking lineout position. Excellent attacking opportunities were squandered. Silly penalties were given away.

Shane Williams, on his 33rd birthday, did manage a try to pass Gareth Edwards’ record as Wales’s most prolific try scorer. And Stephen Jones passed Neil Jenkins’ record for total points in the championship. But it is not a day either player will want to remember. Just as against England, they could have won the game, and they threw it away with silly errors.

Petition the IOC

The Organisation Intersex International, a body that fights for the rights of intersex people, has created an online petition demanding that the International Olympic Committee abandon its plans to force intersex women to undergo medical treatment before they allowed to compete in sports. Along the way it also demand that the IOC treat such people with respect rather than referring to them as suffering from a “disorder”. Should you wish to sign, the petition is here. The web site is a little flaky, but my signature registered OK.

If you have missed my coverage of the issue, try this BBC article.

How to Create a Level Playing Field

Further to this post, here’s an explanation as to how ski jumpers are handicapped to take account of their weight. It seems to me that using such rules it would be easy to have men and women in the same competition.

Interestingly the rules were introduced to stop athletes from going on unhealthy diets in search of better performance. That’s a much more sensible approach than forcing athletes to undergo potentially harmful drug treatments in order to overcome a perceived advantage, as is proposed for intersex women.

Red Roses Wilt in Rome

Well, that was a thoroughly uninspired performance by England. In the end they won 17-12, but the result was in doubt for much of the match, and had Lewis Moody been yellow-carded for taking McLean out in the air, which he very easily could have been, Italy might have won the game. (If I were a referee I’d yellow-card Moody for breathing on the grounds that’s he’s probably up to no good by doing so, but he’s been a great servant to England over the years by erring just on the side of legality most of the time, or at least not getting caught.)

Italy played a much more expansive and ambitious game than they had done in Dublin last weekend. They don’t really have the talent to break down England’s defense, but they did worry them, and they showed far more enterprise than their opponents who, for the most part, were happy to sit back and play ping pong, punting the ball back and fore down field.

How bad were England? Well, last weekend, against a much better Welsh side, they scored 17 points while Alyn Wyn Jones was sin binned. Today, the only points they scored during Alessandro Castrogiovanni’s absence were the three from the penalty awarded for his original infringement. Italy, on the other hand, scored three while a man down and could easily have got more. Jonny Wilkinson and Dylan Hartley had particularly bad games, but the whole England side were uninspired. They will have to do much better than that against Ireland in two weeks time.

Not Mad In France

The New York Times brings the happy news that the French government has removed “gender identity disorders” from a list of “long-term psychiatric diseases.” That puts France well ahead of the USA, which is only now starting to consider that such “disorders” might be “curable” by means other than torture.

Checking the French news, I am not surprised to see this decision being hailed as a personal triumph for my friend Stéphanie Nicot, who is a leading trans rights activist as well as one of France’s best fantasy editors.

Sadly the French government is also well ahead of the International Olympic Committee which is now recommending that intersex athletes such as Caster Semenya be forced to undergo medical treatment before they can compete in order to neutralize any “unfair” advantages that their condition confers. The Huffington Post and Time put the boot in. I look forward to the day when Serena Williams is required to undergo medical treatment so that she can compete on a level playing field with me. I rather fancy winning an Olympic medal for tennis and it is clear that differences in her genetic makeup, not to mention her age, give Ms. Williams an unfair advantage over me.

Olympic Reassurance

Given all of the sports posts I have been making of late, some of you will be dreading the Winter Olympics. Please rest assured that I have very little interest in winter sports. The only thing I’ll be doing is supporting Team San José in their attempt to win an ice hockey gold for Canada. Go Sharks!

Rugby Update

During the first half of the game against Wales Scottish winger, Thom Evans (brother of try scorer Max and cousin of BBC DJ Chris) was stretchered off after going head first into a tackle. The report during the game was that he had a leg injury, but the BBC now reports that he is in hospital with a “very serious” back injury. I’m sure all Welsh fans will join me in wishing Thom a speedy recovery.

Update: The latest news is that Thom has had surgery on his neck and is now able to move his arms and legs.

Grand Theft Rugby

I’m sure it is very convenient for the Welsh Rugby Union to have sponsorship from Cardiff’s local brewery. However, I am concerned that all this talk of “Brains” around the team may have attracted the wrong sort of attention; beings for whom the word “Brains” does not suggest intelligence, or even beer, but rather food. Why do I think that? Well it is clear from today’s performance that while the Welsh team all have “Brains” written across their chests, they have none whatsoever in their heads.

Last weekend a few moments of stupidity cost Wales the game against England. This weekend the disease has spread, and we were witness to 74 minutes of the worst rugby I have seen from a Welsh side in a long time. Passes were dropped, penalties were given away, tackles were missed, the error count was phenomenal. Despite dominating territory, Wales went in at the half 18-9 behind.

To be fair to Scotland, they played with a lot more determination and enthusiasm than their counterparts. Their defense was really well organized, they thoroughly outplayed Wales in the ruck, and when they got chances they took some of them. Their first try was a gift – John Barclay just shrugging off a 2-on-1 tackle from Cooper and Hook to break through for a score. But the second try was a perfectly executed grubber kick by Dan Parks that Max Evans was able to covert because, as Parks was well aware, Lee Byrne had been dragged out of position.

With six minutes to play, Wales were 10 points behind, and down and out. They had battered the Scottish line for much of the second half and come away with only one try – a beautifully worked move into the corner by Shane Williams and Lee Byrne that Stephen Jones failed to convert. However, two new factors were about to come into play. Firstly the Scots were exhausted from continual defense. The final stats show show that Scotland had made 136 tackles to Wales’s 73, and Wales completed 227 passes to Scotland’s 103. And secondly the referee was finally losing patience with Scotland slowing the game down. They had collapsed pretty much every scrum in the game, and were starting to resort to illegal play in the ruck as well.

The turning point in the game came when Scott Lawson was sin-binned for yet another infraction in a ruck. Wales stormed forward, taking advantage of the extra man, and Leigh Halfpenny ran in for a try. Crucially he had the presence of mind to run around behind the posts to give Jones the easiest of conversions.

From the kick off, Wales attacked again, and Lee Bryne broke through the Scottish defense. Phil Goodman panicked, and tripped him up. Wales were awarded a penalty, which Jones converted to bring the teams level. Goodman was, of course, sin-binned, leaving Scotland with only 13 men on the pitch.

Time ran out as the players were lining up for the re-start, but in rugby a game cannot end until the ball goes dead, so the referee insisted on one final play. Mike Blair could have hoofed the ball out of play to settle for a draw, or even kicked short to give his team a chance to recover the ball, but instead he kicked long and Wales poured forward again. A couple of minutes later Shane Williams (who else) cut through the Scottish line for the winning try.

It was, I have to say, a total steal. For 74 minutes Scotland absolutely deserved to win that game. But from the moment Lawson was sin-binned Wales ran in 17 unanswered points. As Wales found out last week, you can’t win if you leak points like that.

Elsewhere on a bitterly cold day in Paris Ireland looked to get some revenge for their soccer world cup defeat by the hand of Dieu Thierry Henry. Unfortunately the French comprehensively outplayed them for a 33-10 win. They look very good indeed. The tournament is now taking a week off to let players recover a bit, but in two weeks time France will come to Cardiff. Wales will have to raise their game significantly to avoid a thrashing. Richie Rees appears to have done enough to earn a start at scrum half ahead of the ineffective Cooper, but I’m very worried about Wales at the breakdown and the lineout. Thankfully the French lineout is their one weakness, but their back row forwards are probably the best in the tournament.

World T20 Quals: Day 4

It has been a dramatic day out in Dubai, and tomorrow promises to be even better. Remember that yesterday I said that Afghanistan and UAE were the favorites because they had one win each? Well here are today’s results.

  • The Netherlands beat Afghanistan by 4 wickets
  • Ireland beat UAE by 22 runs

That means that the teams go into tomorrow’s final matches all square. The two teams that win go through. As it turns out we have one “Eastern” semi-final (Afghanistan v UAE) and one “Western” one (Ireland v Netherlands). I’m not making any predictions, but I do hope that the Afghans get through.