The latest issue of Chris Garcia’s The Drink Tank is an extended look at this year’s Hugo nominees. It is mainly by Chris, with guest comment from Niall Harrison. Being up for two fan Hugos himself, Chris majors on the fan categories. He says very kind things about me, for which I am very grateful (beer later, Chris, it will be flat if I send it from here), and offers the absurd odds of 5-1 on my winning. If it was 500-1 I might put some money on me, on the grounds that if I did win then I’d also come into enough money to hide away from the hordes of angry Scalzi fans for the rest of my life. But actually Chris doesn’t quite have his math right.

Those of us who have worked in for a bookmaker (it was a vacation job while I was in college), or indeed in commodity trading, are a little sharper. Chris is offering 2-1 on Scalzi and 3-1 on Langford. So if I put $1000 on each of them I’ll be fine. If Scalzi wins I break even, and if Langford wins I make $1000 profit. Alternatively I could put $2000 on Scalzi and $1000 on Langford. Then if Scalzi wins I get $4000 from him and lose $1000 on Dave, netting $3000; whereas if Dave wins I get $3000 from him and lose $2000 on John, netting $1000. Making money from gambling is quite easy of the bookie doesn’t get him odds right.

Of course you might argue that it is not certain that one of Scalzi and Langford will win. And if you do I will also argue that it is not certain that we won’t all wake up tomorrow and discover that we are all characters in a Charlie Stross virtual novel being played by a gang of adolescent squid on a giant artificial habitat orbiting the planet Ambergris.