(Headline shamelessly filched from the Daily Mirror.)
In a few days time, a new World Champion of rugby will be named. Or perhaps not, because an English side that, earlier in the tournament, looked barely capable of beating the USA, has somehow managed to find its way to the final to defend the crown. Will they pull off a sporting miracle, or will the awesomely efficient Bokke provide a repeat performance of the 36-0 thrashing they handed out to England in the group stage?
Thus far South Africa have won all of their games, and it is easy to see why. They have the best lineout in the tournament. Their scrum and ruck are solid. Percy Montgomery has been superbly reliable with his kicking. Butch James has finally matured into a capable fly half. And in du Preez and Habana they have players whose speed of mind and of foot can break any defense. Only one team has really tested the Bokke, and that was the Fijians, who have the mercurial ability to score tries from anywhere, at any time. And if there is one thing that England definitely can’t do with any ease, it is score tries.
And yet, defenses win tournaments. Whatever other failings the English team might have, they are committed, organized, and mostly disciplined. They also know, as they proved against France, that if the game is in the balance with 20 minutes to play then Wilkinson will win the game for them. So South Africa need to establish a lead. If England are forced to play catch-up they’ll just spill the ball and throw interceptions that will get them into an even deeper hole. But if the Bokke can be prevented from scoring for long enough, then the game will go to whoever has the steadier nerves and the most accurate boot, and we all know who that is.
One area where England might be able to attack is the scrum. They completely destroyed Australia in that department. South Africa are, of course, another matter entirely, but they didn’t look 100% happy against Argentina. It looked to me like there was a lot of boring in going on, particularly on Os Durant’s side, and that Steve Walsh was turning a blind eye to it, presumably because, like me, he didn’t have a clue whose fault it was. How the referee for the final handles scrum infringements might be critical.
Aside from that, about the only non-defensive tactic England are likely to try is niggling the Bokke in the hope that they can get Schalk Burger or some other hot-head sent to the bin. It will, I think, be a bit of a bad-tempered game.
Overall, however, South Africa ought to win. That England have got to the final at all is something of a miracle. Although they would like to win, only their more fanatical supporters expect them to. If South Africa don’t win, they will be seen as having thrown away a golden opportunity. Their biggest enemy may well be nerves.
“Aside from that, about the only non-defensive tactic England are likely to try is niggling the Bokke in the hope that they can get Schalk Burger or some other hot-head sent to the bin. It will, I think, be a bit of a bad-tempered game.”
I think an interesting aspect to this is that a large number of the England players are thought to be retiring immediately after this game.
As this is their last international any sanctions applied by the citing commissioner after the game would only impact on the individual player’s club appearances. So it makes me wonder if we’ll see a little more of the kind of niggle that stops short of a yellow / red card but might interest the citing officer post-game…?
But i don’t think that England will play dirty and let’s not forget that Schalk and Butch are both candidates for a high tackle sin binning based on ample prior form.
You’re right that England don’t score tries with ease, but then neither have the Boks created that much from their own play.
Some of England’s play in the last few games has seemed better in terms of handling with lots of players involved only for the final pass to go astray, if a couple stick it might be a more interesting game.
The South Africans are clearly very worried about the scrum, getting their concerns into the media about Sheridan, and for good reason the Argentinians did a job on them last week and England won at least two against the head in the 36 – 0 drubbing.
Roncero et al got away with a large amount under the noses of Walsh who seemed clueless, particularly letting the boks get away with standing up in the front row because of the (illegal?) pressure from the Argentinians. I am still amazed he’s allowed to ref at all, given his behaviour vs England and the Lions.
I think England have about a 30% chance if they turn up and have an error free game, e.g. not kicking the ball down Percy’s throat or giving Habana an intercept.
One statistic with which I am consoling myself is that, even when playing at our worst in the 36-0 game, we kept the Boks tryless for 35 mins.
The questions for me is who will feel the pressure, England have nothing to lose, the Boks know they should win and will not want the score to be close with only 10 mins to go.